Thu, Feb 23, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 07 | 29 | 112 | 01 | 1 | 429 |
| CGY | 29 | 08 | 17 | 00 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:35CGYAlex TanguayUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:38CGYMatt StajanAssists: Alex Tanguay, Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 1:32PHXDaymond LangkowAssists: Ray Whitney, Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 17:08PHXShane DoanAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 10:27PHXRay WhitneyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 18:14CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
- 2. PHX Ray Whitney scored
- 3. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 4. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 5. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:43PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:07CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:43PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min
- P3 6:31CGYMatt Stajan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:34PHXRadim Vrbata: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal14:40
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Doan – Vermette – Korpikoski9:55
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Gordon – Bissonnette4:50
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Langkow – Torres – Boedker9:11
xG 0.31–0.74 (30%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Ekman-Larsson19:16
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Yandle2:12
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Summers – Stone8:36
xG 0.30–0.60 (34%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Stajan – Bouma9:18
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kolanos – Jackman – Horak4:31
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Cammalleri – Comeau11:22
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross12:10
xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie12:52
xG 0.93–0.19 (83%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Hannan – Giordano16:16
xG 0.83–0.68 (55%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Smith16:45
xG 0.41–0.75 (35%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).