Fri, Feb 24, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 213 | 012 | 00 | 1 | 336 |
| NYI | 25 | 115 | 06 | 01 | 2 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 8:42NYIPA ParenteauAssists: John Tavares, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 12:47NYRMarc StaalPPAssists: Anton Stralman, John Mitchell · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:11NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Andrew MacDonald · Slap, 0.50 xG1–3
- P2 11:49NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Artem Anisimov, Stu Bickel · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 16:40NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. NYR Marian Gaborik scored
- 3. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 4. NYR Ryan Callahan stopped
- 5. NYI PA Parenteau stopped
- 6. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 7. NYI Matt Moulson scored
- 8. NYR John Mitchell stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:24NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:24NYRStu Bickel: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:10NYIMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:48NYRBrad Richards: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:29NYRMichael Del Zotto: Throwing equipment2 min · PPG
- P2 16:15NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:49NYRAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00NYIMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:26NYRRyan Callahan: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:13NYIKyle Okposo: Elbowing2 min
- OT 3:47NYIMilan Jurcina: Boarding2 min
- OT 4:23NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Dubinsky – Prust11:34
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Rupp – Fedotenko – Mitchell4:49
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan9:14
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin8:30
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh18:20
xG 1.03–0.25 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto10:23
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Del Zotto3:38
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Martin – Cizikas7:18
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner11:27
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Niederreiter5:51
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:57
xG 0.54–0.92 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit13:47
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Streit – Jurcina2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic13:19
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).