Fri, Feb 24, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 010 | 112 | 131 |
| WSH | 110 | 29 | 15 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Jason Chimera · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 8:42WSHJason ChimeraGWGAssists: Alexander Semin · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 8:58WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 3:42MTLRene BourqueSHAssists: Alexei Emelin, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 19:24WSHJoel WardENAssists: Brooks Laich, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:53MTLRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:10MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:14WSHDennis Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:37MTLErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 17:12WSHMike Green: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:00MTLP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:25MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:08WSHJeff Schultz: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:56WSHJay Beagle: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:44MTLErik Cole: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bourque – White5:00
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Kostitsyn – Eller6:40
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:10
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nokelainen – Eller – Leblanc2:39
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampoli – Weber9:36
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban11:31
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Kaberle – Emelin4:31
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Semin – Perreault9:25
xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Aucoin – Ovechkin – Johansson8:33
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Halpern – Ward – Beagle5:20
xG 0.03–0.05 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Laich – Brouwer10:18
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green11:56
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Wideman – Orlov11:14
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:38
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).