Fri, Feb 24, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 19 | 311 | 525 |
| CBJ | 09 | 08 | 011 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:34COLDavid JonesGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 11:56COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Steve Downie, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 1:35COLDavid JonesAssists: Mark Olver, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 6:55COLSteve DownieAssists: Erik Johnson, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–0
- P3 13:19COLMatt HunwickAssists: David Jones · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:04COLShane O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:57CBJDavid Savard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:44COLDavid Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:59CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:59COLJay McClement: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:41COLChuck Kobasew: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:40COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDownie – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:22
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Jones – Winnik – Olver8:03
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 2–7goals 2–0
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod6:18
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene10:42
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Wilson16:37
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Elliott12:18
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Johnson13:18
xG 0.65–0.75 (46%)attempts 11–17goals 3–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Russell – Dorsett9:14
xG 0.52–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Gillies – Johansen2:01
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Prospal – Letestu – Atkinson10:42
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Gillies – Johansen6:06
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin15:50
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
- Lebda – Savard13:06
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Wisniewski – Moore15:36
xG 0.53–1.01 (34%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).