Sat, Feb 25, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 26 | 04 | 06 | 00 | 2 | 316 |
| WPG | 016 | 217 | 08 | 00 | 1 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie, Andy McDonald · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 19:14STLDavid PerronAssists: Patrik Berglund, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 7:19WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Evander Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.43 xG2–1
- P2 15:14WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 2. STL Andy McDonald scored
- 3. WPG Bryan Little stopped
- 4. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 5. WPG Evander Kane stopped
- 6. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 7. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 8. STL David Perron scored
Penalties (3)
- P2 4:49WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:53STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:06STLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDonald won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Porter – Stewart5:25
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Sobotka3:38
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Arnott – Crombeen – Porter2:25
xG 0.01–0.01 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Arnott – McDonald – Crombeen4:24
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Polak11:58
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
- Huskins – Pietrangelo2:01
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak3:06
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little15:28
xG 1.32–0.22 (86%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov11:03
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton2:12
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Kane2:30
xG 0.01–0.01 (67%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien19:46
xG 2.51–0.47 (84%)attempts 29–15goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Oduya18:37
xG 0.57–0.31 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Stuart – Jones10:49
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).