Sat, Feb 25, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 218 | 07 | 436 |
| TOR | 09 | 010 | 211 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Keith Aucoin · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 3:46WSHAlexander SeminUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:31WSHJeff HalpernGWGAssists: Joel Ward, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.40 xG3–0
- P2 15:03WSHKeith AucoinAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–0
- P3 4:50TORColby ArmstrongUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 15:03TORTim ConnollyAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.23 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:52TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P1 8:52WSHJason Chimera: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:30WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:11WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:01WSHMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:57TORPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:38WSHBrooks Laich: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Ward – Beagle7:12
xG 0.71–0.11 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Laich – Brouwer9:23
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ovechkin – Johansson10:42
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 2–2
- Chimera – Semin – Perreault9:28
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Orlov12:27
xG 1.08–0.62 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Schultz – Green15:53
xG 0.91–0.68 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:54
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lombardi – Kulemin2:21
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Frattin6:31
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Steckel – Brown3:27
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Steckel – Brown – Kulemin2:25
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gardiner3:21
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:00
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Liles – Franson10:55
xG 0.65–0.91 (42%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).