Sat, Feb 25, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 26 | 110 | 111 | 427 |
| DET | 07 | 010 | 314 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Steve Downie, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 2:42COLDavid JonesSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 13:35COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Steve Downie · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 0:44DETJiri HudlerPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 9:13COLSteve DownieGWGAssists: Ryan Wilson, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 13:22DETJiri HudlerAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brad Stuart · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 14:53DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Jiri Hudler, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:01COLMark Olver: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:36DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:33DETJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:42COLMark Olver: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:41COLTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:45COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:45DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDownie – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:47
xG 1.42–0.38 (79%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod5:55
xG 0.01–0.04 (20%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Winnik – Olver9:26
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stastny – Galiardi – Duchene11:06
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Wilson4:14
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Hejda – Hunwick5:14
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Wilson3:21
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler5:32
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak8:52
xG 0.22–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Abdelkader2:31
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Filppula – Hudler5:17
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Quincey6:19
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart7:39
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Kronwall2:19
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).