Sat, Feb 25, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 2, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 19 | 016 | 234 |
| NSH | 310 | 18 | 23 | 621 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03NSHColin WilsonAssists: Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 3:23NSHShea WeberAssists: Martin Erat, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 10:58SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 15:58NSHKevin KleinGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Mike Fisher · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 0:23SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 12:04NSHShea WeberPPAssists: David Legwand, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:00NSHMartin EratENAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–5
- P3 19:18NSHNick SpalingAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:46SJSAndrew Desjardins: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:44SJSRyane Clowe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:22NSHBrandon Yip: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:22SJSTommy Wingels: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:53SJSMichal Handzus: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:22NSHHal Gill: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:28NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:39NSHFrancis Bouillon: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:31SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski11:16
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Clowe – Couture – Wingels11:59
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn8:52
xG 0.13–0.39 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Demers10:50
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic11:30
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Boyle – Burns4:19
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Wilson11:25
xG 0.67–0.31 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:57
xG 0.13–0.16 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Bourque9:34
xG 0.05–0.26 (15%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber14:41
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
- Bouillon – Klein11:56
xG 0.29–0.30 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Gill – Josi12:05
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).