Sat, Feb 25, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 015 | 215 | 213 | 02 | 2 | 545 |
| CGY | 26 | 17 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45CGYMark GiordanoPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:17CGYMatt StajanAssists: Lance Bouma · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 12:55CGYTom KostopoulosSHAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 15:47PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 19:26PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Matt Carle, Matt Read · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 7:35PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 10:49CGYAlex TanguayUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–4
- P3 12:21PHIScott HartnellAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
- 2. PHI James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 3. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 4. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 5. CGY Michael Cammalleri scored
- 6. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 7. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
- 8. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 9. CGY Curtis Glencross stopped
- 10. PHI Matt Read scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:01PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:48CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:14PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:01CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:12CGYCurtis Glencross: Throwing equipment2 min
- P2 7:00CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:00PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:11CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:41PHIMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28CGYGuillaume Desbiens: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:55CGYMatt Stajan: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:49PHIPavel Kubina: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 17:50CGYOlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux9:23
xG 0.57–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Read – Couturier6:17
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Brière – Talbot – Simmonds8:49
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Schenn8:44
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Grossmann13:08
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Timonen – Coburn11:22
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:26
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Cammalleri – Comeau8:49
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Stajan – Bouma7:08
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Jackman – Desbiens – Horak6:31
xG 0.00–0.09 (4%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross10:17
xG 0.10–0.40 (19%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Brodie13:02
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Hannan – Giordano11:44
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Smith14:27
xG 0.33–0.92 (26%)attempts 10–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).