Sun, Feb 26, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 29 | 09 | 00 | 226 |
| DAL | 06 | 18 | 110 | 14 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:56VANRyan KeslerAssists: Chris Higgins, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 13:11VANMason RaymondAssists: Chris Higgins, Aaron Rome · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 18:04DALMichael RyderPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:07DALMike RibeiroAssists: Alex Goligoski, Sheldon Souray · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 3:52DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Trevor Daley, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:58VANAaron Rome: Interference2 min
- P2 10:01DALMichael Ryder: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:37VANChris Higgins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:13DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Hansen12:11
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:41
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Weise6:21
xG 0.04–0.09 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Booth – Raymond – Hodgson9:16
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Edler13:46
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Rome2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev2:41
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Ott – Burish – Wandell7:03
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom12:36
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson15:55
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Petersen – Vincour – Garbutt5:15
xG 0.04–0.06 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen16:13
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Daley – Fistric13:26
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas16:21
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).