Sun, Feb 26, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 212 | 02 | 114 | 328 |
| MIN | 17 | 113 | 26 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Jamie McGinn, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 3:21SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–0
- P1 9:13MINCal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 1:43MINNick SchultzPPAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 8:45SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 14:33MINMatt CullenAssists: Marco Scandella · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 15:47MINJed OrtmeyerGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:09SJSPatrick Marleau: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:22SJSJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:39SJSBenn Ferriero: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:44MINKyle Brodziak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:30SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Holding2 min
- P2 19:17MINGreg Zanon: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:34MINWarren Peters: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Mitchell7:27
xG 0.58–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski2:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – McGinn – Wingels8:10
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture5:51
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Demers11:11
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- White – Braun6:14
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Boyle – Vlasic16:35
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Peters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer7:23
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Johnson2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Setoguchi13:26
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Clutterbuck – Palmieri8:14
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Falk4:10
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Foster – Falk7:34
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Zanon – Falk3:59
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).