Mon, Feb 27, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 0, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 06 | 03 | 013 |
| NYR | 14 | 06 | 15 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:59NYRCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 18:54NYRRyan CallahanENAssists: Carl Hagelin, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.73 xG0–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:31NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P2 4:58NJDDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:32NJDDainius Zubrus: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:52NJDEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:52NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:52NJDEric Boulton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:52NYRBrandon Prust: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:00NJDDavid Clarkson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:00NYRMike Rupp: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:27NJDDavid Clarkson: Charging2 min
- P2 19:27NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:27NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique13:40
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Clarkson7:52
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Boulton – Carter – Josefson2:34
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ponikarovsky – Bernier12:03
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Greene3:43
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson15:39
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky12:20
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Hagelin8:18
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan9:29
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Prust – Hagelin2:15
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Rupp – Fedotenko – Mitchell5:14
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto12:32
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh18:56
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
- Staal – Bickel13:39
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).