Mon, Feb 27, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 116 | 05 | 128 |
| COL | 16 | 08 | 39 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26COLCody McLeodAssists: Steve Downie, Jan Hejda · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 18:30ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 0:37COLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 2:55COLMatt DucheneAssists: Paul Stastny, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 14:46COLJay McClementAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Jan Hejda · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 16:25ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:58COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:23COLPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:22COLJay McClement: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Bonino – Smith-Pelly3:45
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Cogliano5:32
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Blake – Getzlaf – Perry4:43
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Blake – Bonino – Smith-Pelly6:51
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lydman – Visnovsky2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa3:22
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:18
xG 0.57–0.78 (42%)attempts 17–15goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stastny – Duchene15:11
xG 1.26–0.19 (87%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Jones – Mueller – Olver10:14
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Landeskog13:21
xG 0.23–0.45 (33%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod8:16
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Johnson18:29
xG 1.05–0.28 (79%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Hejda – Wilson15:31
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Hunwick – Elliott15:44
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).