Tue, Feb 28, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 1, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 018 | 07 | 138 |
| BOS | 07 | 08 | 017 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:44OTTErik KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Milan Michalek, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:41BOSBrian Rolston: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:06BOSTyler Seguin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:56OTTNick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 12:39BOSMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:13OTTErik Condra: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:37OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:51OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Greening – Turris10:06
xG 0.88–0.51 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Konopka – Condra – Smith8:02
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien8:00
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler11:17
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gilroy12:09
xG 1.13–0.57 (67%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen11:40
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson15:56
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:50
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Campbell – Paille – Caron2:04
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:33
xG 0.10–0.13 (45%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Rolston – Thornton – Pouliot2:36
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Ference14:21
xG 0.82–0.79 (51%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Mottau – McQuaid10:33
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Corvo – Seidenberg15:36
xG 0.53–1.03 (34%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).