Tue, Feb 28, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 13 | 012 | 18 | 01 | 224 |
| WSH | 013 | 07 | 213 | 11 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Frans Nielsen, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P3 2:16NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Steve Staios, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 16:31WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Jason Chimera · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:34WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Brooks Laich, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 1:35WSHAlex OvechkinGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:21NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:24NYISteve Staios: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:16WSHMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:03NYIDavid Ullstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 12:26WSHTroy Brouwer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:09NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:12WSHMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bailey – Ullstrom8:37
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Martin8:06
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:33
xG 0.44–0.72 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Okposo – Grabner – Cizikas8:11
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Hamonic2:02
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Staios – Streit12:18
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:03
xG 0.84–0.94 (47%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Ward – Beagle8:05
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Perreault2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Laich – Brouwer8:28
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Ovechkin – Johansson9:23
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Orlov13:34
xG 1.26–0.30 (81%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:13
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Schultz – Green11:08
xG 0.00–0.90 (0%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).