Tue, Feb 28, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 4, Minnesota Wild 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 38 | 15 | 02 | 415 |
| MIN | 010 | 010 | 06 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44LAKJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Slava Voynov, Dustin Brown · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:39LAKDwight KingAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 18:38LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Matt Greene · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–0
- P2 15:01LAKJordan NolanAssists: Alec Martinez, Colin Fraser · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:59MINTom Gilbert: Holding2 min
- P1 13:41MINKurtis Foster: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:17LAKDwight King: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:44LAKSlava Voynov: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:44MINWarren Peters: Diving2 min
- P3 2:37LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:37MINMarco Scandella: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:40MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:05LAKMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:35LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Richardson – Nolan5:26
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar12:23
xG 0.26–0.22 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis9:42
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – King9:37
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez10:37
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Doughty16:54
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Voynov14:47
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Cullen – Clutterbuck – Palmieri9:21
xG 0.10–0.08 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Peters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer8:11
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Setoguchi14:12
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Christensen – Johnson – Powe5:58
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Spurgeon12:11
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Foster – Prosser10:01
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Falk12:51
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).