Wed, Feb 29, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 011 | 29 | 02 | 3 | 429 |
| DAL | 110 | 112 | 18 | 03 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:25DALJamie BennAssists: Steve Ott, Adam Burish · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:53PITSteve SullivanAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 19:47DALSheldon SourayAssists: Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 3:33PITCraig AdamsAssists: Jordan Staal · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 4:12PITChris KunitzAssists: Paul Martin, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 7:23DALMichael RyderAssists: Loui Eriksson, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT James Neal scored
- 2. DAL Loui Eriksson scored
- 3. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 4. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
- 5. PIT Chris Kunitz scored
- 6. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 7. PIT Pascal Dupuis scored
- 8. DAL Michael Ryder stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:26DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:55DALEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P2 0:21DALSteve Ott: Holding2 min
- P2 4:32DALPhilip Larsen: Interference2 min
- P2 8:40DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:35PITJoe Vitale: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:24PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24DALEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:46PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal10:41
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Sullivan – Dupuis – Staal2:35
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Asham – Vitale – Tangradi2:40
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Park – Dupuis – Staal2:19
xG 0.01–0.04 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Niskanen6:08
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Martin – Michalek3:17
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang2:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ryder – Eriksson10:18
xG 0.70–0.25 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Ott – Burish – Benn10:05
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Wandell – Vincour – Garbutt3:57
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:52
xG 0.14–0.62 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Fistric13:26
xG 0.35–0.15 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Larsen11:38
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 16–7goals 0–2
- Souray – Robidas14:06
xG 0.22–0.79 (22%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).