Wed, Feb 29, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 310 | 07 | 117 | 434 |
| CHI | 211 | 212 | 112 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59TORTyler BozakAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 11:01CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Bryan Bickell, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:29TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 16:53TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P1 19:30CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Nick Leddy, Duncan Keith · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 8:33CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Andrew Brunette, Sami Lepisto · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–3
- P2 12:06CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Kane, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 19:44CHIMarian HossaENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–5
- P3 19:56TORMike BrownAssists: Joey Crabb, David Steckel · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:33TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:09CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:32CHIAndrew Shaw: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:32TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:32CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:03TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:02CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:09TORTim Connolly: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kane won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Crabb – Brown6:06
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak12:37
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:12
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Connolly – Armstrong – Frattin9:07
xG 0.14–0.51 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Franson9:56
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Liles – Schenn3:31
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner8:30
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Hossa – Kane13:25
xG 1.36–0.56 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Mayers – Hayes – Bollig3:45
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Shaw9:53
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Sharp – Stalberg – Kruger10:02
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Leddy11:40
xG 0.95–0.42 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook14:42
xG 1.04–0.60 (63%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Keith – Leddy9:01
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).