Wed, Feb 29, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 211 | 212 | 531 |
| EDM | 07 | 211 | 06 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59STLAndy McDonaldAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:05STLScott NicholAssists: David Perron, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 7:34STLAndy McDonaldGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 8:48EDMCorey PotterAssists: Darcy Hordichuk · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 19:12EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Taylor Hall, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 3:28STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jason Arnott · Tip-in, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 7:54STLChris StewartUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:48STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:48EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:14EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:06STLRyan Reaves: Holding2 min
- P2 13:24EDMRyan Smyth: Checking from behind5 min
- P2 13:24EDMRyan Smyth: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:52EDMBen Eager: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:52STLBarret Jackman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:25EDMCam Barker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:54EDMTaylor Hall: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 14:43EDMCorey Potter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Porter – Sobotka6:46
xG 0.56–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves3:52
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Oshie11:00
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Stewart – Berglund – Perron10:04
xG 0.07–0.44 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk11:48
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 3–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo11:35
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Jackman – Polak2:29
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:28
xG 0.99–0.54 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 1–3
- Belanger – Gagner – Eberle3:08
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Belanger – Hordichuk – Petrell3:58
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Smyth – Gagner – Eberle5:52
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Whitney13:04
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Petry2:17
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Potter – Barker9:48
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).