Wed, Feb 29, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 2, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 110 | 04 | 224 |
| ANA | 010 | 013 | 020 | 043 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:12BUFDerek RoyPPGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 8:16BUFBrad BoyesAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–0
Penalties (25)
- P1 5:22ANACorey Perry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 10:09ANALuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:27BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:51ANAMatt Beleskey: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:11ANALuca Sbisa: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:51BUFCorey Tropp: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:51ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:14ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:53BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:21BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:21ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:45BUFRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:45ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:45ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:45BUFRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFPatrick Kaleta: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00ANABobby Ryan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00BUFTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00ANASheldon Brookbank: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFJordan Leopold: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00ANASaku Koivu: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Leino won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Stafford – Hodgson – Ennis9:05
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Boyes – Ellis – Tropp5:09
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek10:38
xG 0.48–0.81 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Kaleta – Gerbe – Leino13:18
xG 0.29–0.77 (28%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Weber2:51
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Leopold – Sekera2:06
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera2:08
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Hagman9:21
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Blake – Cogliano – Bonino4:03
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan12:19
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Pelley – Beleskey – Smith-Pelly3:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler15:21
xG 1.29–0.46 (74%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa16:03
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Lydman – Brookbank8:56
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).