Thu, Mar 1, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 311 | 08 | 02 | 331 |
| BOS | 29 | 011 | 14 | 11 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 8:10BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Milan Lucic, Tim Thomas · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 6:27NJDZach PariseAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 14:03NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Petr Sykora, Anton Volchenkov · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 17:46NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Jacob Josefson, Mark Fayne · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 5:30BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 2:59BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:11BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:11NJDEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:53BOSBrian Rolston: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:27NJDRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:35BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P3 5:45NJDPetr Sykora: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:01BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:27NJDIlya Kovalchuk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson10:17
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique13:43
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Boulton – Bernier – Carter2:36
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus8:28
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky10:07
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Larsson9:15
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky5:30
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Bergeron – Marchand10:48
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pouliot – Caron6:25
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin14:31
xG 0.75–0.80 (48%)attempts 15–18goals 3–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:02
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg2:07
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid5:26
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid5:22
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).