Thu, Mar 1, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 07 | 315 | 01 | 0 | 430 |
| MTL | 29 | 18 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:28MTLLars EllerPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 15:27MINMatt KassianAssists: Darroll Powe, Nick Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 11:59MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 8:50MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 16:07MINMatt KassianAssists: Nick Johnson, Nate Prosser · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 18:17MINDany HeatleyAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–4
- P3 19:50MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Matt Cullen, Nick Johnson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 2. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 4. MIN Dany Heatley stopped
- 5. MTL Rene Bourque stopped
- 6. MIN Devin Setoguchi stopped
Penalties (21)
- P1 0:10MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:10MINStephane Veilleux: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 1:36MINJed Ortmeyer: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 2:23MINJustin Falk: Holding2 min
- P1 7:49MINDany Heatley: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:10MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P1 15:43MTLRyan White: Instigator2 min
- P1 15:43MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:43MTLRyan White: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:43MINStephane Veilleux: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:43MINStephane Veilleux: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:38MTLPetteri Nokelainen: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:15MTLBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:34MINCal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:34MINWarren Peters: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:03MTLTomas Kaberle: Interference2 min
- P3 5:50MINMatt Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:50MTLBlake Geoffrion: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:52MTLYannick Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:52MINDevin Setoguchi: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:27MINJed Ortmeyer: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kassian – Powe5:30
xG 1.08–0.13 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Peters – Veilleux – Ortmeyer6:23
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Heatley – Setoguchi4:19
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Clutterbuck – Palmieri3:21
xG 0.03–0.01 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon9:56
xG 0.58–0.07 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Foster – Prosser5:50
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Falk8:03
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Bourque – Staubitz – Eller2:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Nokelainen – Bourque – Eller2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Plekanec – White – Geoffrion5:06
xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Gomez – Nokelainen – Bourque2:29
xG 0.03–0.33 (9%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Emelin3:19
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Campoli8:08
xG 0.22–0.39 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Gorges – Subban9:16
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).