Thu, Mar 1, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 17 | 19 | 324 |
| PHI | 210 | 211 | 29 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Casey Cizikas, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 9:41PHIMatt ReadAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 19:10PHIAndrej MeszarosPPAssists: Matt Read, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 0:50NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 8:58PHIJaromir JagrAssists: Pavel Kubina, Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 9:37PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 1:07PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux, Nicklas Grossmann · Snap, 0.39 xG2–5
- P3 9:11NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Casey Cizikas, Milan Jurcina · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 19:33PHISean CouturierENAssists: Claude Giroux, Andrej Meszaros · Backhand, 0.71 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:44NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:14PHIZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:04PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares15:32
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Okposo – Grabner – Cizikas9:33
xG 0.08–0.28 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Martin8:22
xG 0.13–0.50 (20%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Ullstrom10:30
xG 0.34–1.37 (20%)attempts 7–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Eaton – Jurcina14:39
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Staios – Streit16:29
xG 0.59–1.00 (37%)attempts 18–21goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:52
xG 0.24–0.84 (22%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux12:11
xG 1.20–0.28 (81%)attempts 21–8goals 2–1
- Brière – Simmonds – Read11:10
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Schenn2:14
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier7:22
xG 0.12–0.80 (13%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Grossmann14:11
xG 1.79–1.10 (62%)attempts 23–14goals 3–2
- Timonen – Kubina12:42
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:13
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).