Thu, Mar 1, 2012·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Rangers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 212 | 16 | 325 |
| CAR | 06 | 17 | 110 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:58CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 8:21NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Marian Gaborik, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:53NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Derek Stepan, Stu Bickel · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 1:57NYRBrandon PrustGWGAssists: Brian Boyle, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 19:20CARJay HarrisonAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:51CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:10NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28CARJeff Skinner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:33NYRMike Rupp: Interference2 min
- P2 17:34CARDerek Joslin: Interference2 min
- P3 10:28NYRCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:07NYRJohn Mitchell: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:39NYRAnton Stralman: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:39CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust4:43
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan10:33
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Richards – Fedotenko – Hagelin5:11
xG 0.18–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Mitchell – Hagelin5:36
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Bickel10:10
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Girardi – McDonagh15:22
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman3:55
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBrent – Bowman – Samson4:44
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Stewart – Tlusty11:02
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Boychuk – Skinner9:43
xG 0.10–0.57 (15%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Allen – Gleason11:08
xG 0.11–0.27 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Spacek – McBain13:52
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Harrison – Faulk8:29
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).