Thu, Mar 1, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 0, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 017 | 09 | 033 |
| WPG | 213 | 08 | 511 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01WPGEvander KaneGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 6:03WPGJim SlaterAssists: Mark Stuart, Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P3 1:49WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Mark Stuart, Evander Kane · Deflected, 0.20 xG0–3
- P3 4:35WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Randy Jones · Snap, 0.27 xG0–4
- P3 8:06WPGNik AntropovPPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.48 xG0–5
- P3 8:18WPGEvander KaneAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Alexander Burmistrov · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–6
- P3 17:58WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Evander Kane, Tim Stapleton · Backhand, 0.43 xG0–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:30FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:56WPGTim Stapleton: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:46FLAEd Jovanovski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:51WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:51WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:51FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:51WPGMark Stuart: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:21WPGNik Antropov: Holding2 min
- P3 19:21FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Fleischmann – Wolski5:46
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann3:42
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sturm – Santorelli – Matthias4:19
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kopecky – Goc3:18
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Garrison16:06
xG 1.19–1.15 (51%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Weaver – Ellerby12:56
xG 0.14–0.59 (19%)attempts 3–13goals 0–2
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson11:51
xG 0.80–1.59 (34%)attempts 14–13goals 0–3
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little12:14
xG 1.58–0.75 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov9:48
xG 0.74–0.27 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 3–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton7:28
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass10:45
xG 0.34–0.82 (29%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien14:55
xG 1.89–0.47 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Stuart – Jones9:57
xG 1.22–0.26 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 4–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian15:27
xG 0.71–1.12 (39%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).