Thu, Mar 1, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 113 | 04 | 228 |
| COL | 08 | 013 | 012 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:53CBJNikita NikitinPPGWGAssists: Vinny Prospal, Fedor Tyutin · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 15:11CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Vinny Prospal, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:22COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:08COLJamie McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:41COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:41CBJJack Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:06CBJDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:06COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:26CBJNikita Nikitin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:22CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Dorsett – Gillies12:33
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Prospal – Letestu – Atkinson10:03
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Boyce – Russell – Johansen5:18
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard12:26
xG 0.29–0.60 (32%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Moore10:52
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin18:44
xG 0.61–0.37 (63%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson16:57
xG 0.46–0.82 (36%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDownie – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:48
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Jones – McGinn – Olver10:10
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Mueller – Duchene6:19
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hejduk – McClement – McLeod2:25
xG 0.05–0.11 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- O'Brien – Johnson15:48
xG 0.84–0.80 (51%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Elliott15:59
xG 0.37–0.46 (44%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Hejda – Wilson16:13
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).