Sat, Mar 3, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 212 | 112 | 08 | 332 |
| SJS | 17 | 03 | 09 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:52STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.46 xG1–0
- P1 15:29SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Dominic Moore, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:49STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Vladimir Sobotka · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 12:38STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:27SJSTJ Galiardi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:36SJSDominic Moore: Interference2 min
- P2 11:39SJSJustin Braun: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:24STLVladimir Sobotka: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:39SJSJoe Thornton: Holding2 min
- P2 18:27STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Interference2 min
- P3 5:32SJSRyane Clowe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:11STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Berglund – Perron8:57
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Sobotka12:15
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Arnott – Crombeen – Stewart5:39
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Arnott – Porter – Stewart4:10
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk11:56
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo15:50
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Jackman – Polak4:37
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Wingels6:14
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Clowe – Couture – Wingels3:49
xG 0.02–0.02 (57%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Mitchell – Winnik11:10
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski5:42
xG 0.05–0.27 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Boyle2:10
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun3:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Burns2:42
xG 0.03–0.01 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).