Mon, Mar 5, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 012 | 015 | 110 | 137 |
| PIT | 211 | 012 | 05 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:44PITZbynek MichalekAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:45PITChris KunitzGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 1:27PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:43PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:43PITChris Kunitz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:15PITSteve Sullivan: Holding2 min
- P2 11:46PITJoe Vitale: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:46PHXAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:46PHXMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:46PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:46PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:24PITMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:19PITBrooks Orpik: Charging2 min
- P3 19:19PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal12:05
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Doan – Vermette – Korpikoski4:25
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Gordon – Boedker5:08
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Langkow – Doan – Torres3:14
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Ekman-Larsson17:18
xG 0.86–0.52 (62%)attempts 27–14goals 1–1
- Aucoin – Yandle19:25
xG 0.28–0.65 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Summers – Rundblad9:31
xG 0.23–0.77 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Dupuis – Staal9:00
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Vitale7:52
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal11:30
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Park – Asham – Adams5:48
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Michalek19:53
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Strait – Lovejoy7:15
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Lovejoy3:50
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).