Mon, Mar 5, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 19 | 08 | 124 |
| WPG | 110 | 08 | 213 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 19:25BUFCorey TroppAssists: Matt Ellis, Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–1
- P3 8:02WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 10:54WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Bryan Little, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:58WPGJim Slater: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:33WPGAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:01BUFTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:54BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:53BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Leino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Ellis – Tropp10:12
xG 0.78–0.24 (76%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Kaleta – Gerbe – Leino9:07
xG 0.11–0.36 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek10:37
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Stafford – Hodgson – Ennis13:47
xG 0.13–1.05 (11%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers2:43
xG 0.64–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Weber13:33
xG 0.58–0.38 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Sekera2:00
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little14:44
xG 1.42–0.18 (89%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Stapleton8:50
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass7:34
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov10:51
xG 0.49–0.98 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien20:17
xG 1.71–0.44 (79%)attempts 27–14goals 3–0
- Stuart – Jones13:18
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Clitsome15:52
xG 0.53–0.73 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).