Tue, Mar 6, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 114 | 03 | 126 |
| NJD | 111 | 07 | 311 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Zach Parise, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:56NYRDerek StepanAssists: Carl Hagelin, Dan Girardi · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 2:27NJDDavid ClarksonGWGAssists: Petr Sykora, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 4:21NJDRyan CarterAssists: Jacob Josefson, Ilya Kovalchuk · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 18:07NJDPatrik EliasENAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Bryce Salvador · Snap, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:03NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:03NJDRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:32NJDCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:32NYRJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:16NJDBryce Salvador: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:27NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:49NYRMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:10NYRBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17NJDMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:55NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust6:49
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin3:45
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Callahan9:44
xG 0.21–0.29 (41%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Hagelin – Stepan8:11
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Bickel12:08
xG 0.66–0.19 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Eminger – Del Zotto9:57
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh17:11
xG 0.36–0.82 (30%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique11:32
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Carter – Josefson2:50
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boulton – Janssen – Carter2:59
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus10:44
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene16:01
xG 0.78–0.19 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky12:45
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Salvador – Larsson12:05
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).