Tue, Mar 6, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 12 | 016 | 121 | 239 |
| PHI | 29 | 18 | 06 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:50PHIJakub VoracekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 18:11PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Braydon Coburn · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 14:10PHIMax TalbotSHGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–3
- P3 8:47DETJohan FranzenAssists: Brendan Smith, Kyle Quincey · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:23DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P1 5:21PHIAndreas Lilja: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:01PHIZac Rinaldo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:46PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:44PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:45DETDarren Helm: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartnell won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Cleary – Abdelkader2:27
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Franzen – Helm6:16
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Franzen – Helm3:39
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Conner – Emmerton – Mursak5:48
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJanik – Smith11:07
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Kronwall – White3:06
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Quincey2:35
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Voracek – Schenn5:03
xG 1.14–0.05 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Giroux7:20
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Schenn4:32
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Wellwood – Couturier2:36
xG 0.02–0.03 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Gustafsson13:12
xG 1.03–0.60 (63%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Kubina – Carle14:47
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann14:01
xG 0.25–1.03 (20%)attempts 6–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).