Tue, Mar 6, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 110 | 117 | 013 | 240 |
| CBJ | 215 | 111 | 06 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Derick Brassard, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 3:54CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Vinny Prospal, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 11:57PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Ray Whitney, Shane Doan · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:02CBJDerek MacKenzieGWGAssists: Derek Dorsett, Colton Gillies · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 16:26PHXKeith YandleAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:42CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:42PHXTaylor Pyatt: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:42CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:57CBJDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:44PHXRaffi Torres: Holding2 min
- P2 17:30PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:51CBJCam Atkinson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:00CBJRyan Russell: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00PHXMartin Hanzal: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:38CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:18CBJAaron Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:16PHXMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Doan – Vermette8:54
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Torres – Hanzal8:07
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Gordon – Korpikoski – Brule4:37
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Langkow – Pyatt – Boedker5:34
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson14:51
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Yandle – Rundblad2:02
xG 0.03–0.01 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Summers – Rundblad9:15
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Letestu – Atkinson11:36
xG 0.85–0.10 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Dorsett – Gillies7:22
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard10:43
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin7:28
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lebda – Moore7:21
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Wisniewski – Johnson13:17
xG 0.74–0.69 (52%)attempts 14–20goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).