Tue, Mar 6, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 5, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 29 | 16 | 213 | 528 |
| NSH | 16 | 210 | 110 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:41NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 18:53LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Slava Voynov, Willie Mitchell · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 9:16NSHMartin EratAssists: Mike Fisher, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 12:21LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Jordan Nolan, Colin Fraser · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 14:05NSHSergei KostitsynUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 1:15LAKMatt GreeneAssists: Dustin Penner, Trevor Lewis · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 3:00LAKTrevor LewisGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Backhand, 0.23 xG5–3
- P3 14:42NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:48NSHJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:48LAKKyle Clifford: Interference2 min
- P1 19:57LAKTrevor Lewis: Interference2 min
- P2 3:21NSHNick Spaling: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:43LAKMike Richards: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47LAKDustin Penner: Elbowing2 min
- P3 13:19NSHJordin Tootoo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Penner – Lewis10:53
xG 0.25–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan7:53
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar10:50
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 2–3
- Carter – Richards – King11:33
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty19:07
xG 0.82–0.43 (65%)attempts 20–17goals 2–3
- Greene – Martinez12:20
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Voynov17:15
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist9:58
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- Tootoo – Spaling – Wilson7:24
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Smith – Bourque6:46
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:11
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis9:30
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Gill – Josi7:50
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Gill – Bouillon6:49
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).