Tue, Mar 6, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 1, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 08 | 15 | 122 |
| COL | 111 | 415 | 213 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05COLJay McClementAssists: Cody McLeod, Shane O'Brien · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 10:53COLJamie McGinnPPGWGAssists: Peter Mueller, Steve Downie · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 14:38COLJan HejdaAssists: Steve Downie, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 15:32COLMark OlverAssists: Paul Stastny, David Jones · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
- P2 16:34COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–5
- P3 4:34MINDevin SetoguchiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–5
- P3 13:09COLDavid JonesAssists: Jamie McGinn · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–6
- P3 18:37COLCody McLeodAssists: Ryan Wilson, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:34MINNate Prosser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:04COLJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:04MINKyle Brodziak: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:04MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:04MINKyle Brodziak: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:56COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:56MINJed Ortmeyer: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:56MINWarren Peters: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:56COLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:52COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:02MINWarren Peters: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:08MINErik Christensen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34COLMatt Hunwick: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 14:22COLPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Veilleux – Christensen – Palmieri5:49
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Johnson10:07
xG 0.60–0.62 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Peters – Ortmeyer – Kassian5:32
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Heatley – Christensen – Johnson3:06
xG 0.04–0.15 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon13:08
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Scandella – Prosser4:17
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
- Foster – Prosser3:03
xG 0.10–0.07 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDownie – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:47
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Hejduk – McClement – McLeod6:05
xG 0.35–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn10:04
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- McClement – Mueller – Olver2:17
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Johnson11:50
xG 0.90–0.15 (85%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Hejda – Wilson14:16
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 3–0
- Hunwick – Elliott14:15
xG 0.94–0.54 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).