Tue, Mar 6, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 213 | 310 | 529 |
| VAN | 010 | 113 | 18 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:45VANChris HigginsAssists: Jannik Hansen, Samuel Pahlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 16:44DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Mike Ribeiro · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 19:37DALMike RibeiroAssists: Loui Eriksson, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 4:25DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 7:55VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 11:11DALMike RibeiroAssists: Michael Ryder, Stephane Robidas · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 19:56DALStephane RobidasENAssists: Richard Bachman · Wrist, 0.52 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:24DALMark Fistric: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 3:08VANManny Malhotra: Holding2 min
- P1 3:16DALPhilip Larsen: Holding2 min
- P2 7:10DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:14DALTrevor Daley: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:14VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:21VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:23VANRyan Kesler: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:21DALMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Benn11:49
xG 0.83–0.65 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson11:43
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:53
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Ott – Eriksson – Benn2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Fistric9:02
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Larsen12:16
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Souray – Robidas14:54
xG 0.84–0.53 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 3–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:00
xG 0.80–0.46 (64%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
- Pahlsson – Higgins – Hansen9:40
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 2–1
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Raymond5:54
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Booth – Kassian12:08
xG 0.25–0.65 (27%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa15:50
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:28
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Gragnani2:29
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).