Thu, Mar 8, 2012·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 1, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 112 | 011 | 130 |
| NJD | 16 | 15 | 39 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Zach Parise, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 3:33NJDIlya KovalchukPPGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 16:21NYIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Josh Bailey, David Ullstrom · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 7:05NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Ryan Carter, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 8:09NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Zach Parise, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 15:59NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Jacob Josefson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:48NJDAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:27NYIMarty Reasoner: Interference2 min
- P2 3:19NYISteve Staios: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:41NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:49NJDBryce Salvador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:37NYIPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bailey – Ullstrom8:31
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Cizikas – Niederreiter11:37
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares15:35
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Pandolfo – Reasoner – Martin6:19
xG 0.13–0.51 (20%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Streit15:19
xG 0.33–0.11 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:25
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Eaton – Jurcina14:08
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson11:57
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique12:12
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Boulton – Bernier – Carter7:56
xG 0.03–0.23 (13%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus11:39
xG 0.02–0.21 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky14:39
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson2:07
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene13:33
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).