Thu, Mar 8, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 0, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 09 | 08 | 028 |
| PHI | 110 | 213 | 212 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:35PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 3:06PHIMatt ReadAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–2
- P2 12:49PHIScott HartnellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 2:35PHIJaromir JagrPPAssists: Daniel Brière, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 18:33PHIEric WellwoodAssists: Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:28FLAEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:59PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:56PHIMatt Carle: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:56PHIMatt Carle: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:56FLAJack Skille: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:07FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:07PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:24FLASean Bergenheim: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:49PHIZac Rinaldo: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:58FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:58FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:58PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:15FLAMike Santorelli: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:53PHIAndreas Lilja: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:04FLAEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:04PHIMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Wolski – Matthias9:01
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Weiss – Bergenheim10:01
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Barch – Santorelli – Skille4:09
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Smithson – Kopecky – Goc6:25
xG 0.14–0.83 (14%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison11:30
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 21–6goals 0–1
- Campbell – Ellerby2:27
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Ellerby2:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Read8:47
xG 0.92–0.39 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Jagr – Shelley – Wellwood3:30
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier8:39
xG 0.04–0.03 (51%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Schenn10:01
xG 0.21–1.07 (16%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Manning10:36
xG 1.11–0.28 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Coburn – Manning3:01
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann10:52
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).