Thu, Mar 8, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 015 | 28 | 03 | 00 | 226 |
| WSH | 113 | 03 | 112 | 14 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:08WSHKeith AucoinAssists: Karl Alzner, Jeff Halpern · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:25TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 18:42TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 16:02WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:09WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:47TBLEric Brewer: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:58WSHDennis Wideman: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:44WSHMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:46WSHJay Beagle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:36TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos15:16
xG 1.02–0.48 (68%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Malone – Pyatt – Connolly6:40
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Wyman8:36
xG 0.13–0.52 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Lee11:29
xG 1.00–0.75 (57%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Commodore – Mikkelson3:29
xG 0.03–0.01 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Hedman16:48
xG 0.74–0.75 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Semin – Perreault12:50
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Halpern – Ward – Aucoin5:58
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Johansson15:32
xG 0.83–0.91 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Brouwer – Beagle10:22
xG 0.39–0.97 (29%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Orlov18:41
xG 1.01–0.13 (88%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Schultz – Green12:47
xG 0.73–0.94 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:57
xG 0.60–1.22 (33%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).