Thu, Mar 8, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Los Angeles Kings 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 09 | 09 | 130 |
| CBJ | 215 | 111 | 010 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14CBJMark LetestuAssists: James Wisniewski, Vinny Prospal · Deflected, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 12:22LAKAnze KopitarSHAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 19:51CBJJack JohnsonGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 3:07CBJMark LetestuAssists: Maksim Mayorov, Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:05LAKWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:26CBJJames Wisniewski: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:52CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:52LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:52LAKAlec Martinez: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:08LAKJarret Stoll: Interference2 min
- P3 0:53LAKWillie Mitchell: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:16LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar9:37
xG 0.45–0.07 (87%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis4:27
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner3:15
xG 0.01–0.02 (27%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – King5:29
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez7:56
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 15–2goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Voynov12:26
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Greene3:34
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard11:11
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Prospal – Letestu – Atkinson11:02
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Russell – Mayorov – Johansen4:30
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Boyce – Dorsett – Gillies4:43
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Johnson17:07
xG 0.86–0.47 (65%)attempts 18–18goals 2–0
- Nikitin – Moore5:41
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nikitin8:16
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).