Thu, Mar 8, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New York Rangers 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 09 | 09 | 126 |
| OTT | 24 | 03 | 215 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Brad Richards, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 5:50OTTZack SmithAssists: Erik Condra · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 18:50OTTNick FolignoGWGAssists: Jim O'Brien · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 5:53OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Rob Klinkhammer · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–3
- P3 18:33OTTJason SpezzaENAssists: Milan Michalek, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:54NYRAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:01OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:31OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:20OTTJason Spezza: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:50NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:17OTTNick Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:58OTTSergei Gonchar: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:58NYRMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:05OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:05NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan7:15
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Mitchell – Anisimov2:11
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin6:34
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:28
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman2:48
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Bickel13:19
xG 0.06–0.43 (13%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Stralman – Del Zotto8:15
xG 0.20–0.67 (23%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Greening12:07
xG 0.80–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Neil – O'Brien – Smith2:05
xG 0.14–0.09 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith5:31
xG 0.03–0.00 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Klinkhammer – Turris10:11
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gilroy8:35
xG 0.71–0.09 (88%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Cowen13:56
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Kuba – Karlsson14:19
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).