Thu, Mar 8, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 13 | 09 | 15 | 217 |
| NSH | 29 | 113 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14COLJamie McGinnAssists: David Jones, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 2:54NSHMike FisherAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 6:58NSHBrandon YipAssists: Roman Josi, Gabriel Bourque · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 19:28NSHSergei KostitsynGWGAssists: Matt Halischuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 4:58COLPaul StastnyAssists: Peter Mueller, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:16NSHMartin EratENAssists: Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:58COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P2 13:26COLShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:31NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:31COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:43NSHMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:43COLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – McLeod – Connolly3:44
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn13:05
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Mueller – Olver6:02
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Mueller – Olver – Connolly5:30
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Hunwick3:16
xG 0.19–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson9:50
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
- Hejda – O'Brien3:40
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist12:22
xG 0.78–0.07 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Halischuk – Spaling9:08
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn12:09
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Yip – Bourque8:46
xG 0.73–0.78 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber19:38
xG 1.11–0.19 (86%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Ellis9:25
xG 0.51–0.29 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gill – Bouillon6:13
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).