Thu, Mar 8, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 3, Dallas Stars 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 016 | 114 | 213 | 05 | 0 | 348 |
| DAL | 08 | 19 | 215 | 03 | 1 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:16DALMichael RyderAssists: Jake Dowell, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 19:58SJSTorrey MitchellAssists: Joe Thornton, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 0:25SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 6:42DALJamie BennAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Adam Burish · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 16:28SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 18:45DALTomas VincourAssists: Stephane Robidas, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 2. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
- 3. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
- 6. SJS Tommy Wingels stopped
- 7. DAL Michael Ryder stopped
- 8. SJS Dominic Moore stopped
- 9. DAL Tomas Vincour scored
- 10. SJS Logan Couture stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:29SJSDouglas Murray: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:48DALRyan Garbutt: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:16DALVernon Fiddler: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:30SJSTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:37DALMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski10:24
xG 0.89–0.18 (83%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- Clowe – Couture – Wingels8:44
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture3:47
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Mitchell – Winnik12:51
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic15:57
xG 1.05–0.39 (73%)attempts 26–17goals 3–2
- Murray – Burns12:58
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Burns2:36
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDowell – Wandell – Vincour4:44
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Burish – Benn – Garbutt10:22
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom12:00
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson14:59
xG 0.39–0.84 (32%)attempts 17–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Daley6:24
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski2:18
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Daley – Fistric8:35
xG 0.27–0.29 (49%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).