Thu, Mar 8, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 18 | 313 | 531 |
| EDM | 110 | 17 | 110 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:06EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Corey Potter, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 19:43MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 2:02MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Scott Gomez, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–1
- P2 6:42EDMLinus OmarkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 3:00MTLTomas KaberlePPAssists: Rene Bourque, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 5:07MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Ryan White · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 13:12EDMTaylor HallAssists: Nick Schultz, Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:43MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:50MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:10MTLChris Campoli: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:37EDMTheo Peckham: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:09EDMNick Schultz: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:48MTLErik Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:33EDMTheo Peckham: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:20EDMTheo Peckham: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:47MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBourque – White – Eller3:48
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – White5:39
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Gomez – Geoffrion – Palushaj3:47
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nokelainen – Staubitz – Geoffrion3:54
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban17:33
xG 1.48–0.44 (77%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Campoli – Weber12:25
xG 1.06–0.45 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Emelin9:52
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Horcoff – Jones10:20
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Omark10:21
xG 0.21–1.17 (15%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:26
xG 0.42–1.42 (23%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Smid – Petry14:10
xG 0.34–0.41 (46%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter14:17
xG 0.31–1.25 (20%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Schultz – Peckham10:07
xG 0.36–1.56 (19%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).