Fri, Mar 9, 2012·United Center, Chicago
New York Rangers 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 08 | 29 | 325 |
| CHI | 07 | 19 | 36 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:13NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 14:28CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Johnny Oduya, Bryan Bickell · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 7:11NYRBrandon PrustAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–1
- P3 13:02CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 14:04CHIJohnny OduyaAssists: Marcus Kruger · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 19:07CHIPatrick KaneENGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–4
- P3 19:19NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Carl Hagelin, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:52CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 2:57NYRMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:57CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:30CHIViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:02NYRAnton Stralman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Kane
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Mitchell – Scott4:08
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:23
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Hagelin – Stepan2:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Callahan3:45
xG 0.01–0.07 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh17:39
xG 1.12–0.54 (68%)attempts 23–12goals 2–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:35
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Staal – Bickel15:01
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBolland – Bickell – Shaw10:43
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Kane3:10
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Brunette – Hossa – Kane14:14
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Sharp – Stalberg – Kruger11:29
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Leddy16:37
xG 0.59–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook20:09
xG 0.80–0.72 (53%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Hjalmarsson – Olsen10:47
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).