Fri, Mar 9, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 216 | 012 | 117 | 345 |
| CGY | 314 | 19 | 14 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:47CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Mark Giordano · Deflected, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 12:51CGYMatt StajanAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–3
- P1 17:31WPGEvander KaneAssists: Bryan Little, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P1 19:33WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Grant Clitsome, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 12:53CGYAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 11:28CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 13:48WPGToby EnstromAssists: Jim Slater, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:27WPGMark Flood: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:02WPGTanner Glass: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:20WPGNik Antropov: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:20CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:56CGYSven Baertschi: Charging2 min
- P3 10:30WPGAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:14CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Kane – Burmistrov9:05
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little15:03
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Kane2:07
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Antropov – Stapleton – Kane2:21
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:46
xG 1.28–0.26 (83%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Stuart – Jones8:34
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Clitsome14:24
xG 0.87–0.94 (48%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Stajan14:44
xG 1.71–0.99 (63%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross12:03
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Nemisz – Baertschi5:10
xG 0.05–0.30 (13%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kolanos – Desbiens – Horak5:40
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Smith13:56
xG 0.88–0.66 (57%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
- Sarich – Bouwmeester2:03
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hannan – Giordano15:41
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).