Sat, Mar 10, 2012·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 015 | 214 | 235 |
| NYI | 09 | 07 | 18 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:46NYIJohn TavaresAssists: PA Parenteau, Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 18:21NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Jacob Josefson, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 18:35NJDMarek ZidlickyPPGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:41NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:16NJDEric Boulton: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:42NJDSteve Bernier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:53NYIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:50NYIMark Eaton: Holding2 min
- P3 4:30NJDRyan Carter: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:29NYIPA Parenteau: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Josefson11:16
xG 0.86–0.16 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Boulton – Bernier – Carter4:29
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Henrique10:56
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus9:45
xG 0.09–0.40 (19%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky12:06
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene12:04
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPandolfo – Reasoner – Haley7:43
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:46
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Bailey – Ullstrom – Niederreiter10:10
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:25
xG 0.16–0.73 (18%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Eaton8:32
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Staios – Streit2:23
xG 0.02–0.03 (39%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:50
xG 0.35–0.92 (27%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).