Sat, Mar 10, 2012·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 19 | 07 | 122 |
| STL | 115 | 25 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01STLDavid PerronAssists: Andy McDonald, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:24CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Mark Letestu, Brett Lebda · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:17STLChris StewartGWGAssists: Barret Jackman · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 14:38STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: David Backes, Carlo Colaiacovo · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 7:11STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Andy McDonald, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–4
Penalties (19)
- P1 2:12CBJDarryl Boyce: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:12STLChris Porter: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:12CBJDarryl Boyce: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:07CBJAaron Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:44CBJCam Atkinson: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:15STLT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:57CBJDane Byers: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:57STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:15CBJR.J. Umberger: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48STLBarret Jackman: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:48STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:48CBJRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:45CBJDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:45CBJDerick Brassard: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:40STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:40STLJason Arnott: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:40CBJNikita Nikitin: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:49STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:49STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestByers – Russell – Johansen4:29
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Letestu – Atkinson10:32
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Boyce – Gillies – Mayorov7:03
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard9:48
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nikitin11:29
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Johnson16:04
xG 0.78–0.64 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Lebda – Moore10:32
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Berglund – Perron7:28
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Backes – Oshie – Sobotka8:40
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Nichol – Crombeen – Reaves2:19
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Nichol – Porter – Reaves2:24
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk11:35
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Polak – Cole11:21
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak3:34
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).