Sat, Mar 10, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 2, Nashville Predators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 010 | 118 | 237 |
| NSH | 28 | 06 | 16 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:30NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: David Legwand · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:43DETDrew MillerAssists: Daniel Cleary, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 11:59NSHAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P3 4:34NSHAndrei KostitsynPPGWGAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 14:35DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:40DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:22DETDoug Janik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:48NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 16:38NSHFrancis Bouillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:06DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P3 2:54DETBrad Stuart: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:01NSHFrancis Bouillon: Holding2 min
- P3 19:50NSHShea Weber: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Hudler12:50
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Abdelkader5:40
xG 0.12–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Cleary – Franzen – Helm4:52
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Franzen – Helm – Nyquist7:26
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJanik – Smith10:13
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Kronwall – White2:47
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- White – Quincey11:43
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist8:46
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Tootoo – Bourque6:24
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Spaling – Wilson7:38
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:50
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Josi12:36
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Ellis9:50
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Gill – Bouillon2:41
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).