Sat, Mar 10, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 112 | 318 | 435 |
| VAN | 015 | 17 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:58VANRyan KeslerAssists: David Booth, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 18:43MTLBlake GeoffrionAssists: Louis Leblanc, Yannick Weber · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 0:13MTLErik ColeGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:20MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 11:02MTLErik ColeAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:54MTLAaron Palushaj: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:12VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:59MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:55MTLBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:55VANZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:47MTLRyan White: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:47VANMason Raymond: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:21VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 4:37VANChris Higgins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:38MTLChris Campoli: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:38VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:33VANZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00MTLCarey Price: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLYannick Weber: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Plekanec – Pacioretty11:21
xG 0.81–0.08 (91%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Staubitz – Geoffrion – Leblanc4:13
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Bourque – White – Eller11:46
xG 0.58–0.48 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Gomez – Geoffrion – Leblanc2:03
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin11:34
xG 0.85–0.34 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Gorges – Subban14:34
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Weber3:30
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Kassian6:15
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Booth10:57
xG 0.58–0.66 (47%)attempts 19–9goals 1–2
- Malhotra – Burrows – Lapierre2:39
xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows8:23
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGragnani – Tanev11:45
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev2:02
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).