Sun, Mar 11, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 18 | 18 | 226 |
| CBJ | 07 | 115 | 012 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:09STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:20CBJMark LetestuAssists: Ryan Johansen, Brett Lebda · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 3:46STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:13STLChris Stewart: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:46CBJJared Boll: Interference2 min
- P1 13:51STLB.J. Crombeen: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:44CBJVinny Prospal: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:44CBJVinny Prospal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:54STLB.J. Crombeen: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:03CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:03STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:16CBJColton Gillies: Holding2 min
- P2 18:21CBJDarryl Boyce: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:21STLKevin Shattenkirk: Elbowing2 min
- P2 18:21STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:21STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:14STLB.J. Crombeen: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:17STLAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Langenbrunner – Nichol – Crombeen2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McDonald – Berglund – Perron8:14
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- Backes – Oshie – Sobotka8:06
xG 0.12–0.49 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jackman – Shattenkirk11:12
xG 0.31–0.38 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole10:04
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo11:19
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Nash – Brassard10:22
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Byers – Boll – Johansen4:44
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Letestu – Atkinson8:46
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Boyce – Russell – Gillies6:54
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nikitin11:30
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Lebda – Nikitin2:17
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson12:23
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).